2027 Grammy Predictions: Ella Langley, Taylor Swift Lead Record of the Year Race

First-round Grammy ballots went out to Recording Academy members on Monday, and Variety's early read on the 2027 Record of the Year field points to one overwhelming fact: Ella Langley's "Choosin' Texas" recently crossed 24 weeks at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, an all-time record, making the singer what the trade outlet calls "the Tennessean elephant in the room."

Voting in the first round continues through October 22. Nominees will be announced on November 16, nearly two months before the February 7, 2027 ceremony. Variety predicts the eight Record of the Year nominees will come from a field of ten frontrunners, though the outlet concedes that "a surprise or three is always in order" among the Academy's thousands of voters.

Who leads Record of the Year?

Variety's ten leading contenders, listed alphabetically:

• Olivia Dean – "Man I Need"
• Ariana Grande – "Hate That I Made You Love Me"
• Noah Kahan – "The Great Divide"
• Ella Langley – "Choosin' Texas"
• Bruno Mars – "I Just Might"
• Raye – "Where Is My Husband!"
• Olivia Rodrigo – "The Cure"
• Rosalía feat. Björk & Yves Tumor – "Berghain"
• Sienna Spiro – "Die on This Hill"
• Taylor Swift – "The Fate of Ophelia"

Ten more records Variety says could get in include Brandi Carlile's "Human," Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter's "Bring Your Love," Harry Styles' "Aperture," Kacey Musgraves' "Dry Spell" and Tame Impala's "Dracula" featuring Jennie. Dark-horse conversations also name Beyoncé's "Morning Dew (Donk)," Paul McCartney's "Days We Left Behind," Charli xcx's "Camera" and Cardi B's "Errtime."

Variety's columnist writes: "We feel unusually confident that the eight nominees will all be from that first list of 10 — which is foolishness, because this is the Grammys." If forced to cut two, the column would drop Grande, who "hasn't been that much of a Grammy favorite in top categories in years past," and Rosalía, whose genre-splicing "Berghain" is described as "by far the weirdest track under consideration."

What does this change for country music?

Langley's case is historical as much as statistical. Country has fared poorly in the top Grammy categories in recent years, and no country record has won Record or Song of the Year since Lady Antebellum's "Need You Now" in 2011. Variety argues that "by any actual verifiable and objective data standard," "Choosin' Texas" was the record of the year, and adds: "Some might even say that if Langley doesn't prevail in a top category this year, we should just sigh and take it on faith that it will never happen for the genre again."

The 24-week Hot 100 reign is the hardest number in the race. It gives Langley a case no other contender can match on the charts. Langley also faces competition from Sienna Spiro for Best New Artist, a category Variety flags as a fierce two-way fight.

Taylor Swift versus the two Olivias

Beyond Langley, Variety frames the race around three women: Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo and Olivia Dean, with Raye and Spiro as the remaining newcomers in the mix. The column half-jokes that Bruno Mars and Noah Kahan are longer shots "because they're men, right? It's just not their year," adding that "the tides do point toward a diva prevailing."

Swift occupies an unusual position. She has won Album of the Year "seemingly a million times," yet has never won Record of the Year or Song of the Year, which Variety says has generated "she's overdue!" sentiment. Her submitted record, "The Fate of Ophelia," "certainly rivals 'Choosin' Texas' in some regards as the biggest single of the year," with hundreds of thousands of fans recreating the video's dance moves on Instagram — virality that Variety suggests may matter more to voters than any narrative of past snubs.

Swift split her submissions: "The Fate of Ophelia" for Record of the Year, the Pixar song "I Knew It, I Knew You" for Song of the Year — a nomination that Variety notes could also bolster the tune's campaign for a Best Original Song Oscar. Rodrigo likewise went all-in on one song, choosing the brooding ballad "The Cure" over the upbeat "Drop Dead" and "Stupid Song." Dean stayed with "Man I Need" throughout.

What about Song of the Year?

Variety's ten Song of the Year frontrunners:

• Brandi Carlile – "Returning to Myself"
• Olivia Dean – "Man I Need"
• Noah Kahan – "The Great Divide"
• Ella Langley – "Choosin' Texas"
• Bruno Mars – "Risk It All"
• Raye – "Where Is My Husband!"
• Olivia Rodrigo – "The Cure"
• Sienna Spiro – "Die on This Hill"
• Bruce Springsteen – "Streets of Minneapolis"
• Taylor Swift – "I Knew It, I Knew You"

Because the song category rewards writing over production, Variety expects some production-driven records to drop out, opening room for Springsteen's "ICE-melting protest song," a high-profile entry that never became a Hot 100 smash. Carlile submitted the balladic "Returning to Myself" here rather than the rockier "Human"; Mars chose the soulful "Risk It All" over his bigger hit "I Just Might."

Notable absences shape both races. Drake and J. Cole did not submit at all, BTS did not submit in any category, and the PinkPantheress and Zara Larsson hit "Stateside" was also not entered — leaving hip-hop, in Variety's assessment, as likely to go unrecognized in the major categories as country usually does.

Variety declines to name a winner now. "We've got almost four months for that," the column concludes, "and in the meantime we're going to do what 'The Cure' advises us to do: brood."