Blue Wave Hits Washington: What Democratic Control Means for Hollywood

By Elena Vasquez

Democrats swept the midterms, and Hollywood's top legislative priority — a federal tax incentive — now faces an uncertain path through a shaken Congress. The election was a referendum on President Trump, prices and the war in Iran, but its consequences will reach deep into studios, broadcasters and their government relations teams.

Here is what the Democratic shift changes for the media industry over the final two years of Trump's term.

What happens to the federal film tax incentive?

The bill is bipartisan. It unites Trump and Senator Adam Schiff. In theory, a change of party control should not affect it.

In practice, disruption rarely builds legislative momentum. Trump appeared to waver at a rally last Friday, telling the crowd that people in Hollywood are "all calling me kissing my ass" for tax credits. "I'll probably do it. Should I do it?" he asked. The crowd booed. "We'll have to think about it."

The industry is putting stock in that "I'll probably do it," though Trump has let allies down before.

Congressional Republicans are in shock and focused on recriminations and a leadership race. They could still pass Hollywood tax credits, but the issue is not top of mind. House Democrats may prefer to hold off on bipartisan deals until the next Congress, when they hold all the leverage.

The arithmetic is sobering. Of the bill's 31 Republican cosponsors in the House and Senate, 10 will not return next year. Democrats are historically more supportive of Hollywood than Republicans, so odds may improve in the 120th Congress — but that would mean starting the legislative process over.

The bill also depends on a sense of crisis requiring immediate action, which is hard to sustain across a longer timeline. "The iron is very hot right now," Schiff said in September. "We're all very focused on this. The president is focused on this. I wouldn't want to see that bleed into next year."

Takeaway: The incentive can still pass this year, but every day of political upheaval makes that harder.

Does Democratic control change FCC oversight?

Not directly. Democratic control of Congress will not flip the Federal Communications Commission.

It will, however, mean greater oversight of chairman Brendan Carr. Over the last two years, Carr has jawboned broadcasters over Jimmy Kimmel's jokes and launched inquiries into political commentary on "The View."

Democrats in Congress view Carr as a manifestation of Trump's impulse to squelch opposing views. They are likely to use subpoena power to investigate past and future controversies. Whether that adds light or just heat remains to be seen.

Takeaway: Expect congressional subpoenas aimed at the FCC, even if the commission's leadership stays unchanged.

Can PBS and NPR funding come back?

The Corporation for Public Broadcasting went out of business last year when Congress stripped $1.1 billion in funding — roughly the entire federal commitment to public media in one stroke.

The cuts threatened the budgets of hundreds of local stations. Some have been forced to consolidate. The move also eliminated a significant source of funding for PBS and NPR.

Democratic control makes restoration at least possible, though it would require a detour into the culture wars, since conservatives view NPR and PBS as vehicles of leftwing bias and indoctrination.

Supporters want more than a rebuilt CPB, which was designed for the media environment of 1967. They want to reinvent federal support for public media beyond broadcasting alone.

"We urge the incoming Congress to renew federal investment in public and community media after the loss of the Corporation for Public Broadcasting and build a system around what communities need today," Rima Dael, CEO of the National Federation of Community Broadcasters, said in a statement. "Universal access to fact-based news, trusted local information, and cultural programming means reaching people on air and online, in the languages they use, at a time when reliable internet access remains uneven and AI can amplify misinformation and disinformation."

Takeaway: Restoring the $1.1 billion is conceivable under Democrats, but supporters are aiming for a broader redesign.

Will Congress investigate the media capitulations of 2025?

The House Oversight Committee will have a full plate of corruption investigations. Media may or may not make the cut.

Potential targets include:

• The "Melania" documentary deal
• The payouts over Trump's "60 Minutes" lawsuit
• His George Stephanopoulos lawsuit
• His deplatforming lawsuits against Twitter, YouTube and Meta
• The Ellison family's efforts to win Trump's blessing for the Paramount-Skydance and Paramount-Warner Bros. mergers

Any such probes could trigger prolonged battles over executive privilege. But if Congress succeeds, it could open a trove of internal communications revealing how major media companies approached their dealings with the president at the peak of his powers.

Takeaway: Subpoena-backed investigations could expose how studios and networks negotiated with Trump — if Democrats choose to spend their political capital there.