Contemporary art confidence rises to 56, but recovery stays narrow

By Elena Vasquez

ArtTactic’s contemporary art market confidence score rose to 56 in September, up from 43 in March 2026. The 13-point increase moved sentiment from slightly pessimistic to slightly optimistic. It was only the third positive reading in more than four years.

The September report arrives as New York’s marquee auctions, the inaugural Frieze Abu Dhabi and the latest Art Collaboration Kyoto are all due this month. ArtTactic supplies a broad, quantified measure of sentiment where the trade often relies on emotion and anecdote.

ArtTactic founder and chief executive Anders Petterson sees the latest optimism as more durable. He says “confidence seems to be grounded in a real recovery in sales, rather than just a belief.” ArtTactic’s cross-section of experts with direct economic exposure expects the modestly positive conditions to continue for the foreseeable future.

Taken together, the figures show thawing rather than a market-wide boom.

What does the confidence score measure?

ArtTactic publishes the Contemporary Art Market Confidence Report twice a year. It asks collectors, advisers, auction house professionals and other market participants whether they feel positive, negative or neutral about aspects of the art trade and the wider economy in the US and Europe. ArtTactic converts each question’s ratings into a single score, from zero—essentially no confidence—to 100—essentially absolute confidence. In plain terms, the report tracks collective sentiment, not transaction volumes.

What do earlier rebounds show?

Earlier optimism faded after two short-lived surges:

• February 2022: The score reached 75, then fell to 42 in July.
• January 2025: A score of 54 plunged to 30 six months later.

In January 2025, 39% of respondents expected Donald Trump’s return to the White House to produce economic policies that would boost the art market overall. Petterson attributes the July 2025 fall to tariffs and the significant uncertainty Trump introduced. He distinguishes the current reading from that episode, citing a real recovery in sales rather than political expectations. The current rebound rests on sales, while both earlier bursts of optimism faded quickly.

How much growth do respondents expect?

Asked whether sales would rise, fall or remain flat over the next six months, 60% of ArtTactic respondents chose flat as their overall outlook. Under ArtTactic’s scale, 56 means most respondents believe conditions are good now, even if only just. Petterson reads that response as stability rather than deterioration.

Confidence differs sharply by segment:

• Auction market: Confidence rose to 78 from 69 in March.
• Primary market: Confidence edged up to 51 from 45.

ArtTactic links the auction increase to strong results at the top end. Most of the auction recovery remains concentrated in the segment above $1m. That segment is likely to benefit galleries and artists operating at the top end. Petterson says it remains unclear whether, and how quickly, confidence will reach lower-price galleries and artists. Strong hammer results also do not benefit all sellers equally. Auction confidence is clear; a broad sales recovery is not.

Which collectors are changing behavior?

On the eve of Frieze week, American adviser Adam Green reported “a noticeable shift” among many clients. Green said persistently high prices for new works pushed several collectors who often bought from primary-market dealers toward auction houses and private resellers. He said those routes can offer a better chance to acquire works closer to their true fair market value.

The figures also suggest that galleries may need to do more to extend the recovery beyond the top end. Green believes the recovery is broadening to some degree. He suspects its full reach may take until the end of the year to become clear. ArtTactic’s survey makes that cautious optimism measurable across a market sample, rather than leaving it to comments from a few familiar industry figures. By year-end, the key test is whether auction confidence reaches lower-price galleries and artists.