Europe’s Industry Leaders Back David Ellison’s Warner Bros. Takeover

Paramount Skydance's $111 billion takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery is set to close Oct. 6, after a federal judge signed off on Paramount's settlement of the antitrust lawsuit filed by 12 states in July. Across Europe, where Paramount chief David Ellison spent the early months of this year lobbying political leaders and entertainment figures in France, Germany and the U.K., the reaction is largely confident — with notable skepticism.

The settlement carries hard obligations. The combined company must release at least 30 films theatrically in each of its first two years and 32 a year in years three through five, with a 45-day theatrical window for wide releases and a 90-day hold before films reach subscription streaming. Paramount has also committed an additional $300 million a year — $1.5 billion over five years — to U.S. film production. The open question on both sides of the Atlantic: can Ellison keep those promises while servicing the $79 billion in debt the company will carry after the deal.

Pierre-Antoine Capton, co-founder and chairman of Mediawan, the European production and consolidation group whose holdings include North Road, Plan B and See-Saw Films, believes he can.

"In Europe, we've also entered a period of intense consolidation. Obviously, a transaction of this size is going to involve synergies, but having spoken with David, I believe his vision is first and foremost an artistic, creative ambition," Capton tells Variety. "He wants to build a more powerful group in order to invest in creation, and it's not only about making cuts. So I believe in his commitment to cinema and to theatrical releases."

Capton argues that rationalizing structures and raising creative ambition can go together, and sees room for strong independents like Mediawan to counterbalance U.S. media giants in territories where they lack local presence.

Not everyone is convinced. Marco Chimenz, prominent Italian production executive and former president of the European Producers Club, doubts the film commitments will survive the merger.

"Though Ellison has promised that the number of films the studios will produce will stay the same, if not grow, I doubt that's going to happen, the same way it didn't happen when Disney merged with Fox," Chimenz says. He predicts a contraction in the combined Paramount–Warner Bros. output, hardest hit among mid-budget films "that will increasingly be destined straight to streaming or straight to television."

On television, Chimenz is more hopeful, noting that Paramount has been inactive in international co-productions while HBO has not. "HBO is playing an interesting role in the production of originals right now," he says, and he hopes the merger "will prompt the combined entity to invest more in local productions" — both because local audiences love local content and to comply with local-investment rules.

The bigger worry may be physical production. Media analyst François Godard argues the merger, combined with the new U.S. federal tax credit, will push Hollywood shoots back to American soil. "Hollywood productions will move away from Europe, Canada and Australia and go back to shooting in the U.S., and specifically California," he says. Britain, where Warner Bros. shoots the upcoming "Harry Potter" TV series and its DC tentpoles at Leavesden Studios, would take the hardest hit.

U.K. executives push back. "We have such a thriving industry here, with so many experts, so many skills," says Clare Binns, BAFTA-winning creative director of Picturehouse Cinemas. "People want to shoot here and I don't think that's going to go away. We've set ourselves up. Obviously, there's always risk, but I think we're in a good position."

Tim Richards, CEO of Vue and former chair of the BFI, points to Ellison's record. "You look at what David Ellison has already done at Paramount, which had a run rate of seven to eight films a year and this year are going to be releasing 15 movies," Richards says. "You're dealing with proper filmmakers and businessmen and not just businessmen. And that's the difference."

Godard flags knock-on effects in sports: Paramount+ will launch the Champions League in the U.K. and Germany in September 2026, but WBD co-owns TNT Sports with BT. "They must settle something with BT to take over TNT and merge TNT with Paramount+. They will also have to reconfigure their sports offering in Germany," he says. On exhibition, he sees aligned interests in reviving theatrical release, with a well-organized exhibition sector ready to "draw a red flag" if the combined studio leverages its market share.

Binns, for her part, will judge the new regime by its slate, not just its numbers. "It's not just the 30 movies. It's what those 30 movies are," she says, noting Ellison's major hire of Ynon Kreiz from Mattel and calling for range: "We need the Danny Boyle films, we need the 'One Battle After Another,' as well as we need the big franchise movies."

The deal closes Oct. 6. Europe's industry will be watching the first greenlights to see whether Ellison's 30-film pledge means breadth or just volume.