Netflix Eyes NBCUniversal as Next Megamerger Target

By Tom Whitfield

Morningstar puts NBCUniversal's price tag at $60 billion once it spins off from Comcast in mid-2027, and industry sources uniformly point to one buyer: Netflix. The question is not whether Netflix wants assets — it bid $72 billion for Warner Bros. and HBO's streaming and studios businesses before Paramount's higher offer won out — but whether it can afford to wait until NBCU is genuinely for sale.

Who is saying what?

Nobody official is confirming anything. Netflix declined to comment. NBCU chief communications officer Jen Friedman told Variety: "We have said from the beginning that we are not pursuing this spin for the purposes of M&A. Our plan for NBCU is to set the business up for growth, and we see a path to doing so given our industry-leading businesses in the most attractive segments of media, our differentiated strategy and our uniquely strong balance sheet."

That is a denial, but a carefully worded one. Comcast co-CEO Mike Cavanagh — who becomes NBCU's chief executive after the spin — told Wall Street analysts the independent company will "have the freedom now to explore adjacent businesses where we have the right to play." Freedom to explore is not a sale plan. It is also not a refusal.

Netflix chief Ted Sarandos, meanwhile, has said little. His takeaway from the failed Warner Bros. pursuit, he said, was that "we really built our M&A muscle." In April he offered only that "we invest in the business both organically and opportunistically."

Why Netflix might move

The pressure is internal as much as external. In the third quarter of 2026, Netflix's top-line growth fell to 11.8%, its lowest in three years, and U.S. subscribers are spending less time on the service. Sarandos and co-chief Greg Peters responded by ousting chief content officer Bela Bajaria and film head Dan Lin, installing veteran Peter Rice — a man who, Sarandos told Wall Street after the Oct. 20 earnings release, "understands talent relations." A leadership purge is an admission that the content pipeline, not the calendar, is the problem.

Terry Dugan, entertainment finance co-head at Moore & Van Allen, is blunt: "Netflix needs to make an acquisition. The only obvious suspect is NBCUniversal." Smaller targets — Lionsgate, A24, Neon, Starz, AMC Global Media — would not move the needle, he says.

The assets make the case:

• Peacock's 48 million subscribers (end of September) fused with Netflix's 325 million-plus base
• A Universal library of more than 4,000 films and 130,000 TV episodes, spanning "Jurassic Park," "Fast & Furious," "Back to the Future" and Christopher Nolan's "The Odyssey," one of 2026's biggest blockbusters
• NBC sports rights with the NFL, NBA and Major League Baseball
• Theme parks second in size only to Disney's
• Sky, the satellite platform serving roughly 20 million subscribers in the U.K., Ireland and Italy

"Netflix is looking at sports, theatrical and experiences. NBCU ticks all of those boxes," says John Conca, telecom and media analyst at Third Bridge. Zach Darrow, chairman and CEO of DarrowEverett, adds: "They walked away when they hit their limit — they are a credible bidder for a library or studio."

What could stop the deal?

Three obstacles stand out. IRS rules require a two-year wait after the spin before a third-party sale, meaning NBCU may not be in play until mid-2029 — though Netflix's bankers could structure around that, or move before the separation completes. Netflix has disavowed linear TV, and Morningstar's Matthew Dolgin notes it would not want the pay-TV-centered Sky business; still, Reed Hastings once swore off advertising, and Netflix launched an ad tier in 2022. Dolgin argues NBC's entertainment and sports programming "would make the Netflix service stickier and give them more pricing power."

Regulation may be less of a barrier than it once was. The Justice Department cleared the Paramount–Warner Bros. deal without conditions this summer; a challenge from 12 Democratic state attorneys general ended in minimal behavioral settlements, letting the $111 billion merger close.

What does this change for viewers and investors?

For viewers, nothing yet — no deal exists. For investors, the calculus is sharper: Netflix's stock plunged after the Warner Bros. signing, with shareholders balking at $60 billion in new debt. Prof. Tammy Madsen of Santa Clara University's Leavey School notes Netflix could opt for bundling partnerships instead, but "if they want to move fast, it would be through acquisitions." As one top Hollywood exec puts it: "They are the streaming leader. And whatever happens, there will be the rationale for more combinations." Watch the next six months; that is when a pre-spin deal with Comcast would most likely take shape.