Nobel Prize in Literature 2026: Carson and Can Xue Lead the Odds

The Swedish Academy will announce the 2026 Nobel prize in literature shortly, and bookmakers have named Canadian poet Anne Carson and Chinese experimental writer Can Xue as joint favourites, with Ladbrokes listing both at 10/1.

The two front-runners sit just ahead of Japanese writer Haruki Murakami, whom Ladbrokes prices at 14/1. Australian novelist Gerald Murnane and American author Thomas Pynchon follow at 16/1 apiece. At longer odds, the bookies place Salman Rushdie, Margaret Atwood and Jamaica Kincaid.

Who is favourite to win the 2026 Nobel prize in literature?

Anne Carson, a Canadian poet and classicist, and Can Xue, the Chinese experimental writer, share the top of this year's betting market. Ladbrokes gives each of them odds of 10/1 to take what the source calls "the top gong".

Both names have circulated in Nobel speculation for years, and their joint favouritism points to a field with no dominant single candidate. The betting market, as always, reflects gamblers' and bookmakers' guesses rather than any signal from the Swedish Academy itself, which keeps its deliberations secret.

Which other writers does the market back?

The Ladbrokes list behind the favourites, as reported by the Guardian's live coverage of the announcement on 8 October 2026, runs:

• Haruki Murakami — 14/1
• Gerald Murnane — 16/1
• Thomas Pynchon — 16/1
• Salman Rushdie — longer odds
• Margaret Atwood — longer odds
• Jamaica Kincaid — longer odds

Murakami's presence near the top of the list is a familiar pattern: the Japanese novelist has ranked among bookmakers' favourites repeatedly in past years without winning.

Could the Swedish Academy surprise the bookmakers?

The Guardian's live blog raises exactly that question, asking of the Academy: "But could the Swedish Academy surprise us?" The answer, on the betting evidence alone, is yes. Recent Nobel announcements have repeatedly passed over heavily backed candidates in favour of laureates the markets had priced far lower.

The Academy's choice will be revealed shortly, ending a speculation cycle that began the moment last year's prize was awarded. For Carson, Can Xue and Murakami, the wait ends with either vindication or another year as the perennial favourite.