AFM 2026: Indie Film Meets a Harder Market, and a Hotter Box Office

The American Film Market opens November 10 in Los Angeles against the backdrop of one of the industry's most turbulent months in recent memory, and Jackie Brenneman, president and CEO of the Independent Film & Television Alliance, insists the turmoil favors the independents.

"We're going to see so many more of these stories dominating in the box office. It's what audiences want to see. If you look at the data and you look at what's happening in the industry, the strongest, the best-positioned players in this sector are the independents," says Brenneman, a former top executive at the National Association of Theatre Owners who took over IFTA in January. AFM runs November 10–15.

The claim needs stress-testing. Paramount Skydance has completed its merger with Warner Bros. Discovery, Netflix has reshuffled its leadership, and the past month has brought waves of layoffs and cuts. Streamers have grown markedly more selective about acquisitions. For producers, sales agents and distributors, that means fewer buyers, fewer projects and a harsher marketplace.

Yet the numbers cut both ways. Domestic box office reached $8.28 billion from January 1 through October 28, up 20.8% from the same period in 2025, according to Box Office Mojo. Only 68 features received wide releases through summer 2026, down 14% from the same stretch in 2019, according to Rentrak. More money, fewer shots.

What does the theatrical rebound change?

For David Atlan-Jackson, chief operating officer of European distribution group Vuelta, everything now hinges on one question: does the film work in cinemas?

"We've entered an increasingly binary, black-and-white market. Either a film gets a theatrical release or it essentially disappears. Television broadcasters have pulled back considerably, and everything now depends on theatrical success," says Atlan-Jackson, whose company is behind Bertrand Bonello's next film "Santo Subito!," starring Mark Ruffalo and Charlotte Rampling. The film is in post-production and has yet to land a U.S. deal.

"Every other revenue stream has become a multiplier of theatrical performance. If your film doesn't succeed theatrically, you're facing a real commercial failure. There's very little middle ground anymore," he says.

Nick Shumaker, head of AC Independent, the sales and finance arm of Anonymous Content, counters that a soft theatrical opening is not always fatal. He points to "The Apprentice," which underperformed in theaters but "over-indexed on VOD in a huge way without ever finding a streaming home." He expects the same from Alex Gibney's "Musk," which has struggled in theaters but, he says, "is second only to 'The Odyssey' in VOD preorders on Apple. … We're already seeing the Elon Musk film over-index on VOD pre-orders and it's a four-hour film."

Scott Shooman, head of IFC Entertainment Group, cites three of his company's 2026 releases — "Forbidden Fruits," "Over Your Dead Body" and "Motor City" — that missed at the box office but performed on VOD.

Who is actually buying tickets?

Gen Z audiences are driving the year's surprise hits, from "Obsession" to "Backrooms" and, most recently, A24's nearly three-hour documentary "You Can See Everything," which grossed $15.6 million on opening weekend and has climbed past $45 million domestically, powered by social media buzz.

"What's exciting is knowing success can come from anywhere: a found-footage horror, a politically socially relevant documentary, or a classic historical melodrama that moves you to tears," says Fabien Westerhoff, CEO of London-based sales outfit Film Constellation. His slate includes the queer adult animation "Jim Queen," which grossed $3 million in France, and the documentary "The History of Concrete," which just passed $2.5 million in the U.S. Still, he warns, the "box office is extremely polarized around a handful of films, which isn't healthy."

Shooman says the surprises haven't changed his calculus. "Does it make me rethink what's a commercially viable film? No," he says, noting that three independent films — "Buddy," "You Can See Everything" and "Obsession" — all posted bigger second weekends after semi-wide openings. "I think there is an appetite for audiences to come back. They want something that they can talk about."

How is the money changing?

With pre-sales harder to secure, Westerhoff says "equity has stepped in," bringing "downward pressure" on budgets and heavier reliance on soft money. "That's why we structure our projects around European shoots, leveraging equity against international and U.S. rights," he says. Shumaker adds that pre-sales remain essential above certain budgets, citing strong results on Mia Hansen-Løve's "If Love Should Die" — but noting that a $50–60 million action film still needs substantial pre-selling to greenlight.

In Europe, multi-territory co-productions increasingly carry ambitious projects: "Santo Subito!" is produced by Mandarin in France with Vuelta co-producing in Italy, where much of the film shoots.

What about A24 and Neon?

Powerhouse indies now acquire worldwide rights and run international sales themselves — and resell at a premium. Atlan-Jackson calls them studios. A24 bought worldwide rights to Jordan Firstman's Cannes breakout "Club Kid" for $17 million from UTA and Charades after a bidding war. "They can resell a film for three, four or five times the original price," he says — value they create through marketing, awards campaigns and theatrical release.

Shooman's answer to buyers complaining about pricey U.S. packages: "all it takes is them having pre-bought an 'Obsession' or a 'River' or a 'Backrooms' or a 'You Can See Everything' for that thing they felt like maybe they paid too much for to end up being a fantastic deal."

Brenneman is also expanding the tent, launching the Global Screen Economy Summit with executives from Spotter, Kynetic Media Ventures and Bamboo Bridge, plus creator entrepreneur Tyler Chou. "They are not a threat, they're more people making and selling content across borders," she says of digital creators. Accreditation stands on par with last year, with more than 80 countries represented and China returning after years of limited turnout — even as Toronto's new market looms as fresh competition. Whether the optimism survives contact with a polarized box office is the question November 10 will begin to answer.