Democrats Swept California. Hollywood Crews Are Still Waiting for Work

By Tom Whitfield

Roughly 46 percent of scripted American projects tracked by Luminate in the first quarter of 2025 were filmed entirely abroad. That single figure explains why Tom Curley, the production sound mixer who won an Oscar for "Whiplash," greeted the Democratic sweep of California's elections with something short of relief.

Curley told IndieWire he has struggled to find consistent work since "CSI: Vegas" was canceled in 2024. "I kind of feel like I was in a car accident almost, and I'm just here staring at the aftermath, wondering how I'm going to pick up the pieces, if I'm ever going to pick up the pieces," he said. "It's a very destabilizing thing."

The loss, he said, has felt "humiliating."

What did the election actually change?

Politically, the results looked favorable for the industry. Democrats won back both chambers of Congress. Xavier Becerra, a Democrat, will succeed Gavin Newsom as governor of the state with the country's largest film and TV production workforce. In Los Angeles, Nithya Raman beat incumbent Mayor Karen Bass after campaigning explicitly to make filming easier in the city.

Yet for the workers IndieWire spoke to in Los Angeles, political satisfaction did not translate into expected paychecks. Rent comes due whether or not the industry thrives. Inflation, gig-economy restrictions, SAG-AFTRA contract uncertainty, permitting costs, artificial intelligence, inaccessible healthcare, corporate consolidation and runaway production all stretch the gaps between jobs.

Curley's fear is specific: that after the Republicans' dramatic losses, Trump could withdraw support for a proposed federal tax credit as punishment. "All it takes is some hurt feelings to get in the way," he said.

What is Congress actually voting on?

The Motion Picture, Television, and Entertainment Revitalization Act, introduced in September with bipartisan backing, would give eligible productions a federal credit covering 20 percent of qualifying pay, rising to 30 percent with bonuses. Projects would generally need to cost over $1 million and shoot at least 75 percent of principal photography days in the U.S. Some domestic post-production and visual effects work would also qualify.

Sen. Adam Schiff and Rep. Laura Friedman, both California Democrats, are pushing the bill through the lame-duck session. Republican cosponsors include Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina and Rep. Nathaniel Moran of Texas, both returning in January.

"I'm working to get this done as soon as possible because film and television workers need these jobs back now, not in a few months or a couple of years," Friedman told IndieWire on November 9. She said the House bill had 54 cosponsors, evenly split between the parties.

"It will take both parties working together to get this across the finish line, and we are pushing hard to make this much-needed incentive a reality," Schiff said in a statement.

The caveats are real. Friedman did not identify a specific legislative package that could carry the measure to a floor vote. If the bill fails before the session ends, lawmakers must reintroduce it in 2027. And even if signed by year's end — allowing the credit to take effect as early as January 1, 2026 — nothing guarantees that out-of-work crews start getting calls, or that the calls come from Los Angeles.

Can state credits fill the gap?

California already makes up to $750 million a year available through its broader film and TV credit, expanded in July 2025, generally covering 35 percent of qualifying spending, with a higher initial rate for TV series that relocate there. In September, Newsom signed AB 2319, creating a separate credit for post-production; allocation begins July 1, 2027, with the state budget deciding the annual amount.

"It's a start, it needs more funding but I hope that brings work in," visual effects editor Richard Sanchez told IndieWire by email. Sanchez is working now — "I'm one of the very lucky folks" — but called the situation "lean."

The numbers cut both ways. According to FilmLA's quarterly report, projects in the state program accounted for 40.3 percent of scripted on-location filming in Greater Los Angeles in the third quarter of 2026, nearly double their share a year earlier. Over the same period, total on-location filming across the region fell 4.8 percent.

"Where the tax credit applies, it's working to bring productions back to Los Angeles and put local crews to work," FilmLA CEO Denise Gutches said in a statement. "Still, overall production remains far below where Los Angeles needs it to be."

FilmLA counts shoot days, not jobs or paychecks. One Bay Area camera operator told IndieWire they doubted they would log enough hours on a union production to qualify for health coverage.

Newsom has proposed raising the annual cap to at least $1 billion, making actors' pay eligible and setting aside $100 million a year for indie productions — changes that still need legislative approval. Becerra called the current program "the floor" during his campaign; his first budget will show what he actually seeks.

Can Los Angeles compete with Georgia?

Georgia offers a 20 percent base credit plus 10 more points for productions that promote the state, with no annual cap. The two states count different expenses, so a producer weighing L.A. against Atlanta runs the numbers both ways. A crew member rooted in one city faces a harder calculation: follow the show, or wait.

"We can't always be the cheapest, so we need to be the easiest," said Pamala Buzick Kim, co-founder of the advocacy group Stay in LA. Raman's office talked regularly with the group about obstacles to filming. Her platform calls for a staffed film office at City Hall, clearer permit timelines, lower fees for smaller productions and coordination with neighboring jurisdictions. Her office did not respond to IndieWire's request for comment.

Some relief is already priced: a low-impact permit pilot, extended through April 30, 2027, lets qualifying productions apply for $350 instead of the standard $931.

What about the mergers no one voted on?

On October 6, Paramount Skydance completed its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery, following the August 2025 Skydance–Paramount Global merger. Skydance's November 9 investor update targets at least $6 billion in annual savings within three years, including combining back-office functions and more AI in corporate workflows. An August analysis commissioned by L.A. County estimated the merger could put about 4,500 local jobs at risk over three years — an estimate of potential losses, not layoffs.

A court-approved settlement requires the new company to release a minimum number of theatrical films, bars it from selling or closing the Paramount and Warner Bros. lots for five years, and commits at least $1.5 billion more in U.S. filmmaking spend over that period than the combined 2025 pace.

Curley can imagine an upside — a burst of indie filmmaking like the 1970s, "maybe this is a good thing for the young people. I'm hoping that's the case anyway." But he already has an Oscar. What he needs now is a call time.