Jimmy Kimmel Rides the 'Blue Tsunami': Late Night's Election Verdicts

Jimmy Kimmel opened Tuesday's "Jimmy Kimmel Live" as early returns from the midterm elections began confirming poll predictions of a "blue tsunami." By airtime, the wave was already breaking.

"Nate Silver, Nate Cohn, Nate Dogg — all of the Nates were predicting a blue wave," Kimmel said.

What did the numbers say?

Kimmel anchored his monologue in a specific statistical claim from Harvard. One election model put the Republicans' chances of keeping the House at the same odds as rolling a 20 on a 20-sided die.

"One election model from Harvard said the chances of Republicans keeping the House tonight was as likely as rolling the number 20 on a 20-sided die. They could have said 5 percent, but somebody at Harvard wanted to let us know they play Dungeon & Dragons," Kimmel said.

The frame translates directly: roughly a one-in-twenty shot, or about 5 percent. The comedy came from the packaging, not the math.

Kimmel then turned to the White House and the former president's evening. "Word from inside the White House is he's already run out of dipping sauce containers to throw at the television set," he said.

The night's most-quoted line followed: "It's all looking good for Democrats. Man, oh man, would I hate to be the DoorDash driver who delivers Trump his Papa Johns tonight."

How did Kimmel frame Trump's priorities?

Kimmel delivered a long, pointed list contrasting voter concerns with what he called MAGA preoccupations.

"If you really look at him, his priorities are insane. They have no relation to what Americans are worried about. Americans are worried about corruption, inflation, climate change, war, wealth disparity, health care, housing, measles and democracy itself. Now let's take a look at the 10 subjects MAGA seems to be worried about: transgender, testosterone, Black Helen of Troy, windmills, ballrooms. Mexicans, reflecting pools, racism against whites, Tylenol, Canada and Canada."

The takeaway in plain words: Kimmel built his case as a list-versus-list argument, ten real anxieties against ten absurdist fixations.

What was Ronny Chieng's angle?

Ronny Chieng of "The Daily Show" took aim at Donald Trump Jr., who had said Democrats want to "make Ohio a state."

"Look, we don't always see eye to eye, but Don Jr. is right, OK? Politics aside, Ohio should not be a state. It's going to change the demographics of this country, and they're never going to assimilate into our culture," Chieng said.

He added a second blow: "Also, once a state gives us JD Vance and Vivek Ramaswamy, it should be at least downgraded to whatever Guam is."

Kimmel closed the exchange with a single line about the Trump family: "You know, maybe Eric isn't the dumb son."

What else happened on Tuesday night?

• Novelist Min Jin Lee discussed her latest book, "American Hagwon," with Ronny Chieng on "The Daily Show."
• Carrie Coon, star of "The Gilded Age," is scheduled to appear on Thursday's "Tonight Show."
• Keira Knightley continues as a major draw for Robert Icke's stage adaptation "The Lives of Others" at the Adelphi Theater in London.

The Times also corrected an earlier version of its roundup: the pollster's name is Nate Cohn, not Nate Cohen.

In short: election night gave late-night hosts a rare convergence of hard data and open material, and Kimmel converted a 5-percent probability into the evening's sharpest running gag. Whether the "blue tsunami" holds its shape as final counts arrive will decide if the joke ages well.