Leonine Chief Fred Kogel Backs Skydance's Paramount-Warner Merger

Fred Kogel, chief executive of Leonine Studios, Germany's leading independent film and TV company, has publicly backed the merged Paramount–Warner Bros. Discovery group now under Skydance, calling David Ellison and Ynon Kreiz "a very strong team" and predicting the group will deliver on its pledge to release more than 30 movies a year.

Speaking to Variety about the merger's impact on German-language territories, Kogel said his confidence rests on Ellison's production track record. "What gives me confidence that the number [of movies] will be delivered is that David Ellison comes from a content background and produced great movies with Skydance in the past," Kogel said. "He is a businessman and a creative guy. He loves the business and he loves making movies."

Why is Kogel so confident about the 30-film promise?

Kogel, a veteran of both production and theatrical distribution, acknowledged that scaling output is difficult. "Knowing the production business and knowing the theatrical business, I know what it means to increase the number of theatrical movies," he said. "It's a hard feat to achieve. You need long-term development. You need enough projects in the pipeline to build that number up. So, I'm optimistic with him and the management that they will deliver on the number of films."

Asked whether Skydance's sizable debt burden worried him, Kogel answered: "In my opinion, Skydance is a group with extraordinary assets, IPs and possibilities. I have complete trust in the people running Skydance." He added: "Of course, it's a tough market, but it's a great business to be in. And being the managers they are, I have complete trust that they and their teams can handle this. So, I'm positive. I'm totally positive."

Does Leonine see business opportunities with Skydance?

Kogel identified two: film production and premium TV drama. "If there is IP that is convincing and that can be produced by us, it could be a natural fit to work with another distributor," he said of films. On television, he pointed to Leonine's existing output for HBO Max, which launched in Germany at the beginning of the year.

Two weeks ago, Leonine started the first major German HBO Max original, "Four Blocks Zero," a prequel to the TNT series "Four Blocks," produced by its banner Wiedemann & Berg Television. Leonine also delivered "Clangold," a Beetz Brothers documentary and the first HBO Max commission in Germany. "I see them as a major force in the German commissioning market," Kogel said.

He argued that local production is strategic for the merged group. "Local German productions are very important for all streamers and broadcasters to create a long-term commitment from the German audience. Germany is the biggest TV market in Europe and one of the most important markets in the world," he said. "And Skydance as a content powerhouse, with its strong services HBO Max and Paramount+, has the power to invest."

Isn't 30-plus films a year more competition for Leonine?

Kogel dismissed the concern. Germany releases approximately 650 films a year, at least 200 of them German, and the 20–25 best films account for the vast majority of annual box office. "I don't see it as a major problem. I think as long as the movies are of high quality — and that's what I expect — then it's good for the market," he said.

"So, I don't mind getting 10 more films a year in Germany. I would be happy if these are the right films, because we need films that draw the audience to the theatrical market," Kogel said. "We are a strong supporter of the theatrical release market, as Leonine, and I'm really very happy if anybody in the business has that commitment." For him, the real problem is too few must-see movies, not too many releases.

Leonine might also distribute Paramount or Warner Bros. titles in German-speaking countries, though Kogel noted such carve-outs normally do not happen when a major studio has its own large German distribution operation, as Warner Bros. does.

What does the Mediawan connection bring?

Leonine belongs to the Mediawan group headed by Pierre-Antoine Capton, which also includes Plan B. The connection has already produced results: after Leonine's successful German film "Weekend Rebels," Plan B developed a U.S. remake with Leonine that has now gone directly to Apple. "These are very interesting opportunities that Pierre-Antoine Capton and I regularly discuss," Kogel said. The group also discusses distributing successful French Mediawan films in Germany, Austria and Switzerland.

What is holding Germany back?

Kogel closed with a warning for U.S. studios eyeing German production: the country lacks a competitive tax credit system. "That's the missing link for Germany to be truly competitive with the other European territories, which already have a tax credit," he said — a gap that could determine whether the newly enlarged Skydance group brings its expanded production slate to German studios at all.