A painting that experts believe is a previously unknown work by Francisco de Goya will go on view at Madrid's Museo del Prado in 2028, in an exhibition timed to mark 200 years after the Spanish artist's death.

The work, titled El milagro de la aparición del eucaristo al San Pascual Bailón (The miracle of the appearance of the Eucharist to Saint Paschal Baylón), has not yet undergone a full technical investigation. But as The Art Newspaper reported, "everyone involved, including Spain's culture ministry and Madrid's Museo del Prado, is operating under the assumption that the answer is 'yes.'"

The Barcelona-based gallerist Artur Ramon bought the painting at auction in Madrid in 2018, when it was attributed to Goya's brother-in-law, Francisco Bayeu. The reattribution began, improbably, during lockdown. Confined to his home in 2020 by the global pandemic, Ramon spent extended time with the canvas and started to suspect it was the work of a far more famous hand.

"I started to see some stylistic traits, some ways of resolving the anatomy, especially in the hands," Ramon told The Art Newspaper. "With just some touches of light and colour, the artist managed to articulate something as complex as a hand in motion. It seemed too good to be Bayeu's."

To test his hypothesis, Ramon applied for permission to take the painting out of Spain to TEFAF Maastricht. He knew the country's Ministry of Culture would ask the Prado to evaluate the work before granting an export license. "I knew that if Prado thought it was a Goya, they wouldn't let me take it out of the country," Ramon said.

The strategy worked. In a statement sent to The Art Newspaper, the Ministry of Culture said: "In the absence of a more in-depth study and verification from various specialists, everything seems to indicate that this is an unknown work of Francisco de Goya from around 1780."

The Prado press office confirmed the painting's inclusion in its 2028 Goya exhibition. Manuel Matilla, the museum's head of conservation for drawings and prints, framed the show as the vehicle for settling the question. "The preparation for the exhibition creates the moment to study the work and then confirm or correct the attribution," Matilla said. "But our starting point is, yes, that this is a Goya."

The painting depicts a figure staring up at a beacon of light with a skull by his feet, according to the image caption distributed by Arthur Ramon Art.

If the attribution holds, Spain will have gained a Goya dating from around 1780 — the period when the artist was establishing himself at the Spanish court — and the Prado's 2028 bicentennial exhibition will debut a canvas unknown to scholarship just a decade ago. The museum's technical study, conducted during the show's preparation, will determine whether Ramon's lockdown instinct becomes art-historical fact.